Potential Market Implications of Trump Assassination Attempt

Jeff Buchbinder:

Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals Podcast. Jeff Buchbinder here, your host for this week with my friend and colleague Adam Turnquist. It is July 15, 2024, Monday afternoon as we are recording this. Adam, boy, to say it was a crazy, scary, awful weekend I think is maybe putting it mildly. We'll certainly get to that. But how are you otherwise?

Adam Turnquist:

Other than that, doing pretty well. We got a hot weekend here in Green Bay, spent it up at the lake, got the kids out in the water, so that was a highlight for us this weekend.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Very nice. Well, what I did this weekend was not a highlight. I tried to play golf and realized that I cannot.

Adam Turnquist:

I can relate to that.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah. A little late for me to find that game. So let's get into it, Adam, we got a lot to talk about, of course. And you know, the failed assassination attempt on president Trump's life will certainly lead with that. But a really interesting week in the markets last week so we'll recap that. The market reaction to the CPI on Thursday was especially interesting with the rotation. So I certainly want to hit that topic with you, Adam, and I know you have a chart related to that. And then we'll have just, you know, you walk through some other key charts that you think are interesting in helping folks make sense of this market. And we'll close with a preview of the week ahead, which is really just about retail sales and earnings, although certainly the Republican convention and an imminent VP announcement on the Republican side will get some attention. So here we go. Dizzying reaction on CPI day. I mean, the first thing that jumps out at me, Adam, is, you know, we didn't get much in the way of tech gains. You know, tech of course has been the leader, but not last week because we got that little bit of rotation and we're what was the recipient of that rotation? The beneficiary? It was small caps.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, big move in small caps and some pretty big diversions this year in performance. The Russell too, finally breaking out of its range. It's basically gone sideways all year, and there's been a lot of investors waiting and waiting for small caps to at least participate in the bull market. Signs of that came through last week, and it was pretty interesting to see some of the breadth metrics. Even on Thursday, the S&P was actually lower by right around 0.8%. You had 400 advancing shares on the index that day so some anomalies in this rotation, and it does highlight just how important those mega cap stocks are to hold this market up and what it really takes for the rest of the market to keep it really break even or treading water even at a four-to-one advanced decline last week, we still had a sell off on Thursday.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, no doubt. The mega caps matter. We had a big down week for Meta, we had a big down week for Netflix, and you see that certainly in the communication services weakness for last week. Still a sector we like. Still one of the leaders this year. But, you know, not, you know, that was a source of certainly proceeds for rotation into small caps rotation into some of these defensive income sectors. We're also seeing a little bit better performance internationally, I guess you could say the international's a recipient of the rotation as well. The dollar was weak last week, so that certainly helps international returns. So you see pretty good numbers out of the EFA, the developed international index. Some pretty good returns out of some of the European markets and then Hong Kong as well.

Jeff Buchbinder:

You know, I guess, you know, the bond market tried to get some headlines last week too. At the same time, of course, that very tame CPI took yields down, increased chances of Fed rate-cuts. Now we're basically fully pricing in a September rate cut and fully pricing in two cuts this year, even more like two and a half actually. So that, of course, is a good environment for bonds as rates fall. So we actually got the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index into positive territory last week. Anything else here, Adam, to highlight? I mean, some commodity moves?

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, there's some big commodity moves. Natural gas continues to pull back. Had a big rally. A lot of that was short-covering. When you look at some of those speculative positioning in the futures market, long nat gas has been flat despite all the volatility in nat gas and its short-covering that's really drove this latest leg higher. We're seeing it really not being sustainable because of inventories remain well above one year, five years averages for this time of year. So more work there in terms of bottoming process for nat gas. And then the other big story is the Bank of Japan coming in to support the yen. Got north of 160. We talked about that being a very important technical level that did cause intervention back, I believe in May, so they came in again, drove the yen lower against the dollar. You can see now 158 on the the yen. However, we have not had a trend line violation. Keep an eye on the 50-day moving average that lines up with this uptrend that's been in place all year for the dollar yen. So not enough to to take out the actual trend, but a pretty big blow to the dollar yen with some yen strengthening there against the dollar.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and I'll also highlight, you know, precious metal's got a bump from the weaker dollar last week. You know, if the market prices in at an increasing chance of a Trump victory that all else equal might be dollar positive, which could then be a drag on precious metals. Certainly precious metals are very dollar sensitive. So we'll watch that going forward. That's one thing that I'll add. I'll also add that the seasonality for crude oil is now starting to turn negative. So, you know, that doesn't mean that the energy stocks can't work. In fact, they're working today on the so-called Trump trade, but oil prices are going to need a stronger catalyst to rise than just, you know, the start of the summer driving season or anything like that. So I want to really quickly highlight the Weekly Market Commentary before we get into the potential implications of the Trump news over the weekend.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Certainly we're glad he's okay, and we certainly wish him a speedy recovery. Seems like it is speedy already based on his trip to Milwaukee. So this is the chart that we had in the Mid-year Outlook. I updated it just to make the point that this bull market is now up about 57%, 57-58% with today's gains. That is actually in line with the long-term average for a 2-year-old bull market on the S&P 500, even though we have these huge gains in 2009 and 2020 that are lifting the average. So this is one way of saying, you know, this has been a pretty strong bull market and maybe adding to gains from here will be, will be a challenge. The Weekly Market Commentary which you can find on lpl.com, features some of the content from the Outlook but with some updated numbers and updated perspective.

Jeff Buchbinder:

So this chart in the Outlook just shows you how well stocks have done based on the S&P 500 during Fed pauses. So in the Outlook we had 20.5%, now we have 23%. So this is now the best performance for the S&P 500 ever in a Fed pause, right? We weren't really tracking Fed rate hikes and cuts in 1960 or before that but certainly in market history, recorded market history, this is the best performance in a Fed pause, which suggests that maybe, you know, we're kind of fully valued and a little more volatility is in store in the second half. So for more perspective on those two concepts as well as other material from the Outlook, you can check out the Weekly Market Commentary. So let's move on to the implications of the events over the weekend.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Certainly tragic event that someone lost their life, an innocent person, but at the same time could have been so much worse. So needless to say, you don't need us to tell you that. And, you know, what this probably means politically, Adam, is that Trump's odds of winning go up, right? He was already the favorite after the disappointing Biden debate performance. And then, you know, this just, I think, solidifies that. So the so-called Trump trades are really working at least today. We'll see if that continues. Obviously, there's a long time between now and election day, so anything can happen, but at this point the market is saying, you know, play the Trump trade. So anything here that you want to highlight? What do you think maybe has the most staying power that investors should be, you know, maybe taking advantage of?

Adam Turnquist:

I think it'll be interesting to see the bond market and how this plays out between now and November. And, of course, there's some inflationary implications if Trump is elected this Fall as his tariffs may or may not be instated. Of course, his negotiating tactics, we never know how those play out with his proposed tariffs versus reality. I think when you look at just what happened over the weekend and how people responded, there was a huge inflow of volume. We look at predictit.org, for example, in terms of the betting markets and betting on either a Trump or Biden victory. And the volumes were unprecedented going into right hours after the attempted assassination. And, of course, that drove former President Trump odds, you know, 67, 68% to highs that we haven't seen. So some big inflows into probabilities for a Trump victory this Fall. So I think it definitely solidifies that narrative, which was already building, really post the debate, and we'll look at some of the odds and how the markets responded to that as well. But it seems to be welcoming the idea of a President Trump victory this Fall. That's not a new message coming out of this weekend. That's been one that I think has strengthened over the last several weeks, we'll call it.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, certainly it looks like at this point Biden's a nominee, but that could change as we're all well aware. So that's another reason why we don't necessarily want to, you know, lock this in and change portfolios around. These are really more kind of short-term trading ideas anyway, because like, in 2016, it was really tricky to gauge where the energy sector might go, as an example. Trump, of course, is favorable to the energy sector with the deregulation, but what you got is more production, lower prices, and then lower energy stocks. In fact, I think energy was the worst performing sector during the Trump presidency in 2016 through 2020. So that's something to think about. Even if you know the outcome, even if you know the policy, you might not always know how the market is going to react.

Jeff Buchbinder:

I guess the, you know, maybe the one Trump trade that I didn't put on here that I think a lot of people would have on their Trump trade list is defense, right? Certainly historically Republicans spend more on defense, and you would probably expect Trump to do that as well. So there's another idea. Now that's within the industrial sector. The industrial sector has a challenge of having a lot of alternative energy or green energy spending in it from the inflation reduction act. So a Trump victory actually could be negative in that respect for industrials, kind of mixed effects there. Although we continue to like the industrial sector for some of these trends that are going to last regardless of, frankly, regardless of the policy. The deglobalization and nearshoring trend is not going to stop no matter how the election turns out in November.

Jeff Buchbinder:

I guess the other one I'll mention here that I think is interesting is the rates impact, right? We have a chart of yields coming up, but if Trump, you know, extends his tax cuts, which he's likely to do, assuming he wins, you're probably going to see yields push a little bit higher, maybe more growth, maybe more inflation, more deficit spending. And that's why a lot of people are playing a steepening yield curve. So, short rates down, because Trump likes Fed rate cuts. In fact, he'll probably replace Powell. He said he would in, I guess, that's 2026, I think, when he would do that. So you've got rate cuts from the Fed potentially as inflation comes down, maybe because of pressure from Washington. We'll have to see if that has any impact. And then you have long rates up, right?

Jeff Buchbinder:

So there's your steepening yield curve, and if long rates go up, then some of the interest rate sensitive sectors might struggle potentially like consumer staples or utilities. And then the last thing on this I would say is, you know, LPL Research favors U.S. over international for equity allocations. A Trump victory would certainly be more pro U.S. and make it a little tougher for some of these international markets. Probably Europe, certainly China, certainly Mexico, and then maybe a recipient, a beneficiary is India so thought that's worth getting in there too. So Adam, I'll turn this over to you. This, I think, the message here is that, you know, the stock market seems to like Trump policy better than Biden policy.

Adam Turnquist:

That seems to be the narrative, at least statistically when we look at correlation data, we have on the top the predictit.org betting odds for either a Trump victory this Fall or a Biden victory. Trump, being in red, you can see that big jump just over the last couple days here at 68% with President Biden down to 26%. So a pretty big delta, at least what the betting market's telling us. And then when you look at the history of that data, and you compare it to how it correlates to the S&P 500, the middle panel looks at the correlation between Trump's election odds and then the S&P, and you can see how it's increased really since, call it March. And that's when his probabilities for a victory this Fall started to go past 50%. And that's been steadily, we'll call it climbing and holding in positive territory.

Adam Turnquist:

Of course, we know correlation is not implied causation, but it does, I think, you can make the case there's enough there. In terms of his policy, as you mentioned, the tax extensions are a big one. Some of the other bank regulations and things like that, that are more market friendly, we'll call it, than maybe what Biden's proposing. And then on the bottom panel just looks at President Biden. The same data, how he's correlated to the market. That's really been in negative territory for pretty much all year. Not as strong negative correlation, but at least directionally negative. So again, more of that message of a market welcoming the idea of a Trump victory. And again, it's not a new phenomenon here. This has been in place really since April and May timeframe, where that correlation started to really turn positive.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, the tax cuts and the tariffs are probably two of the most impactful economic and market differences, I would argue. Again, not talking about, you know, immigration, which is really more political than economic. It has some economic implications. Not talking about social issues, right? Just economic impact. That's really, I think that's where a lot of these market rotations come in, right? Because a lot of people think tariffs are inflationary, they probably are a little bit but as you alluded to Adam Trump is really just setting out the starting point for a negotiation. He's not going to he's not going to raise tariffs on all Chinese goods to 60%. It's just not going to happen. So let's move on to more charts. Certainly some of the Trump trade themes and the rotation that we saw in you know, in response to the CPI last Thursday. I think those, those themes are going to come through in some of your comments on these.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, we'll start with the big picture and look at the S&P 500 here long term. You can see we're in this rising price channel that's been in place really since October of 2022, price above a rising 200 day moving average. So not questioning the bull market in itself, but on a short term basis, when you look at how overbought we are in the market, we had some momentum indicator. Momentum indicators hit year to date highs. We had price now at a 14% premium to the 200 day moving average. That's a statistically high reading. And now we're right into this area of overhead resistance marked by the upper end of that channel. I think you can make the case for a pretty sizable pullback, and not to mention the breath divergences that we've witnessed along this rally. We had fewer and fewer stocks making new 52 week highs, fewer stocks above their 200 day moving average.

Adam Turnquist:

As we know, it's really just been a handful of names driving this market higher. And we've been waiting for this rotation, not quite ready to call it a sustainable move, and that we're going to have a continued rotation. But as a really, a couple days doesn't make a trend, but something we're watching. And the other big level we're watching right now in terms of when this pullback could occur, keep an eye on the 20 day moving average. As you can see on the chart here, it's at 55 0 9. And just go back to the last several times that we retested the upper end of that channel. Once you broke your 20 day moving average, that was a pretty good sign that we're going to really get a deeper pullback that goes, that holds true all the way back to November of 2022. Once you dip below that 20 day, you often revert back to prior areas of support in terms of other levels. If we do get some further downside here, you have the 50 day moving average. Keep an eye on that. Also, the march highs, I think worst case scenario, maybe you get back down closer to those April lows around forty nine fifty, that'd be, call it 11, 12% of a pullback. Nothing out of the ordinary for a bull market or even a second half in terms of a max strata.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, you did some interesting work, Adam showing that, you know, on average, even if you're up more than 10% in the first half, you still tend to see a 10% draw down in the second half. So we're, we're waiting for that. In fact, you know, if we get there, you'll probably see us get more aggressive in buying equities. We currently remain neutral. So this is the chart I was thinking about, Adam, when I was suggesting that you, you have a chart in here that really ties back to that rotation we saw last Thursday.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, this is a equal-weight S&P 500, if you're not familiar with it, as the name implies, every stock has an equal weighting. So it really eliminates that mega cap distortion that we've seen. It's a good barometer of how the average stock and the S&P is doing. And really, we've just been in this consolidation phase. I zoomed in a little bit on the top right here just to show we did break out from what we call a bullish penant formation, but we're not making new highs quite yet. I didn't check the levels today, but keep an eye on those April highs to see, or recent June highs, I believe, to see if we can get through there. A breakout to new highs would be constructive on this, but we're also watching for a trend reversal. You can see this middle panel.

Adam Turnquist:

We compare the equal-weight S&P 500 to the cap-weighted S&P 500, and we're right at a very important support level that goes all the way back to the 2008 lows here. So this could be a logical spot where we get a little bit of a relief rally and the average S&P or the equal weight index versus the cap weighted, but we're not really ready to call this a downtrend reversal. So we're very stretched to the downside in this ratio chart and really that relative performance, or in this case, under performance by equal weight. So would not be surprised to see at least a short term bounce here in this broadening thing play out. However, how long that lasts is to be determined. Again, we're looking for a full blown trend reversal, and we're not quite seeing that at this stage.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I know it from listening to you, it takes more than a day or two to, you know, convince yourself that that one of these rotations has staying power. So we'll keep watching. It was encouraging what happened late last week, but, you know, let's see it last a little bit longer before we think about changing any of our views. You know, I guess on small caps, Adam, we, you know, we've been kind of positioning for this because we did upgrade small caps you know, not too long ago up to neutral thinking that they would be a beneficiary of the rotation when it eventually comes. And high-quality small caps are really attractively valued. Are you seeing enough here on small caps to say the technicals look good, or, or not quite yet?

Adam Turnquist:

I want to call this a breakout. We're right on the cusp. We're at 1350. There's some intraday highs. Even today's price action looks a little suspect. I'm not going to get into one-day candle formations for you today, but really would like to see a weekly close through, call it 1350 with good volume and good breadth. I think that would suggest we're finally breaking out of this range. But most importantly, you're still not leading. And the bottom panel highlights the S&P, the small cap 600 index here compared to the S&P 500. And you can see it's been in a downtrend for the last year, year and a half almost at this stage. So still no trend change in terms of, it's still large cap leading the way here, but really want to see a close above the 200-day moving average on that ratio chart before we would suggest moving more to an overweight. But I do think neutral does make sense right now, especially where we're near the upper end of this range in small caps, and you've probably heard me say it before, small caps don't need to lead the bull market, but it's good to see them at least potentially participating with this latest breakout.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and small caps did really well in 2016 when Trump won. And, you know, they're not as tied to the tariffs, right? I mean, some of the imports, certainly in terms of the supply chain do, you know, come from overseas and they go into small cap manufacturers and all of that, but the market really sees the large caps as more shouldering more tariff risks than small caps. So that could be bullish. But the other side of that is, you know, they're rate sensitive. We got to watch what rates do and then they're economically sensitive, right? More so than large caps typically. So if the economy slows as we expect, that could be a little bit of a headwind. So there's some more reasons why neutral makes sense.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. Even if you go back to the soft landing scenario of 1995, you had small caps lead the way, call it two months before the Feds started, started cutting rates in the summer of '95, and then about two months after, so they had this window of really pronounced outperformance over the S&P. However, tech dominance in that large cap trend continued throughout the rest of 1995 into '96. So it was a, a short-lived run for small caps. Not saying that's the scenario now, but there's some pretty close parallels to '95, and now at least whether it's the most correlated year to to this year, of course, we have a potential soft landing AI and the internet comparisons there. So an interesting analog.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, very, very interesting. You know, some of you might be thinking small cap should really rally if the Fed starts cutting rates, but I mean, history tells you that it actually matters what the economy is doing, right? Because some of those rate cuts in the past proceeded very weak economies, the economy holds up. That probably works. We'll have to wait and see. So here's a popular Trump trade, Adam. The banks, they are doing really well today. Certainly they've, even though the earnings weren't necessarily great so far these stocks are reacting to something. What do you think it is?

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah, I think part of it's a low bar coming out of the, we'll call it the mini banking crisis last year. You can see this double bottom formation with the KBWB bank index finally broke out. And now we've been climbing slowly higher along this rising price channel. You can see we just bounced off the lower end of that channel. Got a momentum buy signal here as well with what we call the PPO indicator or percent price oscillator. Think of the MACD indicator, but a percentage based, but it looks like we're going to continue higher, potentially retesting the late 2022 highs. If you can get through kind of 117 here on the bank index, that would potentially open the door for a retest of those 2021 or late 2021 highs, I think right around 150. So some more upside to go, but again, one resistance level at a time. The trend here is favorable, especially in the context of a bull market. We didn't have a lot of participation from the banks for part of last year, and that was a big flag for the, for the bears in the market in a major talking point. Now we're starting to see them, at least on a relative basis lead the market a little bit and and for sure participate.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I mean, I guess, you know, you're getting better earnings growth out of the financials overall than maybe we've gotten in recent quarters. Of course we came out of an earnings recession. But you're really not buying these as much for traditional lending and traditional net interest margins right now. You know, I would argue that they're being driven more by you know, FinTech and deregulation more than... They're not even that cheap. So, you know, here I said neutral was fair for small, say the same thing for banks right now. And for the financials broadly, it's really not that compelling unless you really want to play this Trump trade aggressively. That could have legs and that could get this group out of this channel that Adam's drawn here. But fundamentally it's really, hard to get too excited about them here.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. One catalyst, maybe the yield curve steepens a little bit. And we have that chart coming up, I think in terms of tens. You talked about the, you know, the Fed starts cutting the more rate sensitive front end will come down. And maybe as you highlight here, the Trump trade keeps the longer end higher. So we'll get a little bit of a steepening effect right now. The trend for 10-year yields, as you can see, we've been in this declining price channel. So Fed lower lows, lower highs really since April. Key level to watch for this week is going to be 420. We're hovering around that level intraday today. So if we can break 420, I think we'll be talking about a potential 4% level on the 10-year momentum favors more downside here as well. The moves on the front end, were much more pronounced, at least on in terms of technical damage. Over the last week we had the two-year takeout, 470, andand some other resistance levels. So that's really pricing in I think, at least two rate cuts how we view things technically. So more evidence of some steepening, but we'll continue to watch that four 20 level. We're now below the 200-day moving average as well. I think that's a good sign for this trend to continue lower.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, absolutely. Not only do lower yields help some of those regional banks that had some strains with their balance sheets. But it also is supportive of stock valuations. So if stocks are going to make much progress in the second half, as we wrote in our Outlook, it's probably going to have to come from strong earnings. But another place it could come from is lower yields, which certainly makes the earnings from stocks more attractive.

Adam Turnquist:

Yeah. And yields are inversely related to inversely correlated, I should say, to market breadth across most breath measures. So as yields come down, you tend to see breath expand. So another potential sign if we get some further weakness in yields that this rally could broaden out.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, that's certainly a bull case scenario. Personally, I think it's harder to make a bull case for China right now. You know, weak GDP growth over the weekend, they reported. And I think expectations for this third plenum are pretty low. Maybe that means they can clear the bar. What do you think, Adam? What are technicals telling us?

Adam Turnquist:

I think the expectations are very low. Although they're definitely going to have pressure following their weaker than expected GDP print. They had loan demand growth hit record lows, although the data set there doesn't go back too far, but there's a long list of weak economic data, and you can throw it all at this example, the MSCI China Index, and we haven't made a new low since November or October of 2022. We got close earlier this year. You can see this kind of head and shoulders bottom formation that's played out. We broke out from there and we've actually and this index has been trending higher. It's got back above the 200-day moving average. So that bear case I think is well known and it's been pounded into this index for the last several, well, almost several years at this point. So again, very low bar setup.

Adam Turnquist:

As we look at the index, it's hovering right above the 200-day moving average. We got very overbought and now we're pulling back, right, to support around that level. And on this latest pullback, we had quite a bit of short-term breadth reach oversold levels. That's starting to level off. And then last but not least, we did get a recent momentum by signal in that PPO indicator. So think of this more as a shorter term trade, again, as a more of a contrarian call with potential upside here to some of the late or mid to 2022 highs here. So that's kind of the upside target as we look at things technically, but it should be an interesting week for China as they meet later this week and talk about more reform policy, what are they going to do for stimulus, how are they going to address this property crisis? So lots more to come, I think, this week.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, and certainly Trump policy, if we get it, is not likely to be very friendly. So got to think about that as well for investing in China. So thanks for that, Adam. Really good stuff. Let's go to the week ahead here. It's retail sales and earnings as well as the, you know, the Republican convention. So you know, I'm actually going to go on, even though I'm not an economist, I'm going to go on record as saying that I think that there's a little bit of a downside bias to the retail sales numbers based on the weekly credit card data that that's been coming through. I've seen several economists, you know, cite the downside risk here. So I mean, it might not miss by much, but we're unlikely to get a very strong retail sales number. Now, keep in mind that's just a small segment of overall consumer spending but it in our view is likely to support the thesis that we have and that we cited in the Mid-year Outlook that consumer spending is set to slow in second half. Anything else you're watching in this week ahead, Adam?

Adam Turnquist:

That's really going to be the big one because it's a building narrative. We heard that out of retail earnings from several major companies talking about just a struggle at the retail space and how they're going down in terms of price points. We heard that from Delta, that was more of a supply over capacity issue, we'll call it with Delta last week. But nonetheless, they're not filling seats. That demand is not what they expected. And Delta has been, we'll call it a bull on the consumer, even in 2023 when they were talking about overall travel demand. They were pretty bullish on it and pretty right, despite what some of the economic forecasts were. So that was one that stood out, and we'll see if we get any type of follow through on the retail sales. I guess that's tomorrow now. So we had a surprisingly weak print last month. You can see that. See if that slowdown continues.

Jeff Buchbinder:

Yeah, I guess there were some pushback from consumers on snacks for PepsiCo. You know, last quarter it was about the restaurants. Recently, you know, Nike. There's been a number of consumer names that have cited, you know, unexpected consumer weakness, which is probably just the effects of cumulative effects of inflation, right? Higher prices, especially the lower to middle income consumers. So that's certainly something we'll be watching. It's probably the key theme during this earning season that the most people are going to be paying attention to. How does the consumer hold up?double-digit So that doesn't change the fact that we're probably going to get a double digit earnings growth number. So pretty good start to earning season overall when you just look at the numbers. But our suspicion, which we wrote about last week in the weekly market commentary was that you're going to see a little bit of a cut to second half estimates as we move through earning season.

Jeff Buchbinder:

That's probably going to be expected by markets. It might not necessarily mean that stocks go down, but it is something to to look out for. So with that, let's go ahead and wrap up. I'll again reiterate, wish President Trump well, former President Trump well. Certainly a scary site over the weekend. Not a great day for our country but hopefully, you know, this can unify us and certainly while it's tragic to lose any innocent life as we did on Saturday certainly could have been a lot worse. And we're thankful that it wasn't. We'll be back with you next week, of course, as we always are. Thanks Adam for joining. Everybody take care and we'll see you next time.