Technical Look at Stocks, Yields, and Gold

Jeff Buchbinder (00:00):

<Silence> Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest LPL Market Signals podcast. Jeff Buchbinder here back in the host chair for this week. Thank you to Marc and Quincy for filling in last week. I am pleased to be joined by our Chief Technical Strategist, Adam Turnquist, back from the Thanksgiving holiday. Adam, did you overeat like I did? How was your holiday?

Adam Turnquist (00:23):

It was good, thanks. I definitely did a little overeating. We finished up the leftovers last night. I just kind of threw everything in the microwave and went at it. So <laugh>, I was a little tired last night, but we got through everything, so it's a good holiday.

Jeff Buchbinder (00:37):

You know, I actually find that sometimes the leftovers taste better than they do the first time around. So especially with turkey. So, I'm with you there. I'm sure you've all heard the strategy, but the key is the elastic pants. That is definitely the key. So it is November 27 in 2023, as we're recording this on Monday afternoon. Thanks everybody for joining. Let's first share these disclosures and then we'll get to the agenda. Here's what we're going to talk about this week. You'll have a, of course, technical slant to the whole presentation here because Adam's with us. So we'll first talk about the four week win streak for the S&P 500. Actually the Nasdaq has a four week win streak as well, so another good week for stocks last week. So we'll tell you about that.

Jeff Buchbinder (01:29):

Next, some key technical charts to watch the S&P of course but we'll throw in the 10-year, throw in the dollar, some seasonality. Next, a lot of people are talking about gold right now, so we're going to try to answer the question will gold continue to shine? Our bias is maybe, yes. Although it's certainly not clear cut, a lot of different drivers of gold prices still based on technicals, as Adam will tell us. They look pretty good, the precious metals broadly. And then lastly, we'll preview the week ahead. This is a really interesting week. It's kind of a catchup week after so much data two weeks ago. Then last week we got virtually nothing. And now I guess you could say it's payback because now we have a very busy week yet again. So let's get to it. Four week win streak for the stock market. You know, if you add those four weeks together you know, you're up over 10%. This has been a really powerful rally. Maybe the first question after this 1% gain last week to ask Adam is you know, are we overbought? Have we gone maybe too far too fast? Do you think this is a week where we might digest those gains a bit?

Adam Turnquist (02:52):

I don't think so. When we look at some of the internals of the market, certainly you can make the argument we're a little overbought, but typically when you see these breakouts, especially with the S&P gapping above a major area of resistance, they typically run a little hot. So I think there's more scope for upside in terms of really hitting those overbought streams. Haven't really seen those quite yet.

Jeff Buchbinder (03:13):

Yeah, I actually, I saw a study from Bespoke this week is on average a little bit worse than your typical week if you go back to World War II, but if you just look at the last 20 years, this week is actually a little bit better than the average week. So take that for what it's worth. Maybe we will just continue to drift higher here. The you know, it's hard to point to a catalyst last week. It's one of those times where so many people are out light trading, light calendar that I don't really like to pull out trends. But, you know, maybe we did have a little bit of you know, jittery bond investors because we had that 20-year auction, the 20-year Treasury auction that didn't go great. And there's, you know, the Fed minutes reminded us that the Fed is probably going to stay higher for longer. Market probably is pricing in too many rate cuts at this point in 2024. So there was a little bit of, I don't know, choppiness around that narrative. But otherwise I mean, earnings continue to be pretty good. Holiday shopping looks pretty good. It was just kind of a, you know, steady march, higher, path of least resistance. Anything you'd add to that last week's in terms of last week's drivers, Adam,

Adam Turnquist (04:34):

I think the other theme is just volatility and implied volatility is starting to come out or continuing to come out of the market. If you look at where the VIX closed last week, it was 12.46. Wow, that's the lowest since January of 2020. Certainly an outlier in terms of closing prices, when you think long term, the average VIX close is about 19.6. So more evidence that we've really shifted from last year's high volatility regime to this year's low volatility regime. But then you can make the argument, of course, it really has nowhere to go but up in terms of expectations for volatility. But I think for now, there's some complacency with what the Fed is doing in the direction of their rate cuts or rate hikes. You know, maybe there's a complacency with this pause theme that's developed over the last month especially.

Adam Turnquist (05:23):

And I think that's helping bring volatility out of the market. Couple other quick themes, small caps lagging last week. That's been a reoccurring theme week over week, and why we continue to like large cap over small cap. They've made a little bit of a comeback over the last month, but I would be a little cautious to call that leadership. And then just on the sector in terms of U.S. equity sectors, another one that's sticking out has just been energy, a little bit of a disappointment there. Obviously, following crude oil lower over the last several weeks. I think this week's OPEC+ meeting, I think that's on Thursday, will be closely watched. Maybe we'll get potential cuts coming out of OPEC+, at least unexpected cuts that could prop up crude oil. So something to watch for the week ahead.

Jeff Buchbinder (06:10):

Yeah. Energy's probably oversold by this point, or at least getting, getting close, I would think, Adam. Do you think you know, that sector's due for a turnaround here potentially this week?

Adam Turnquist (06:23):

I do. I think in terms of timing, it couldn't be any better. As we go into December, seasonals look a lot better when you look at crude oil between, you know, December through spring coming off the shoulder season. So that starts to pick up. Obviously the sector should follow that. And when you look at the internals of the sector in terms of how much technical damage has been caused on a longer term basis, you know, stocks have sold off and they're oversold, but they haven't really violated major uptrends. The majority of the sector still holding up above their 200-day moving average. So consider it a healthy pullback for now. We'll be looking for a bounce in the energy sector over the coming month.

Jeff Buchbinder (07:01):

Yeah, energy is still a sector we like. I mean, may it's, you know, we viewed it as a hedge to some extent when we upgraded it. Well, I don't know exactly what month that was, but it was several months ago. You know, it's a hedge against certainly you know, an escalating war in the Middle East. Of course that war for now has, and we hope it continues to be contained and not spill over into Iran. So that, you know, Israel Gaza has not impacted energy production. And so what you've seen is you know, I think the losses from the energy sector, at least some of them have gone to gains in the consumer discretionary sector, right? Because what do you have when you have lower prices at the pump and cheaper prices to you know, to heat our homes?

Jeff Buchbinder (07:49):

You have more money in consumer's pockets. So we think about it that way too. Energy, a little bit of a hedge, and so its weakness is actually helping other areas of the market. Something else that happened last week that I think was helpful for markets is the dollar. We will show a chart of that here in a little bit, Adam, but dollar was down about a half a percent. And that is certainly supportive of gold as well as international equity. So we saw some pretty decent returns out of international equities in general last week. So I wanted to throw that out there as well. Moving forward the bond market didn't do a whole lot last week. We had well here you see the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index down 0.1%. So just again, a little bit of an uptick in rates last week.

Jeff Buchbinder (08:40):

Little bit of anxiety around Fed minutes, little bit of anxiety around the Treasury auctions, which were mixed overall. Disappointing 30-year auction. A little bit disappointing 20-year in particular. And so that put, that's keeping kind of a floor under rates. We're about 4.40 as we record this. And you know, still the bias is probably lower in the very short term, but that won't be a falling knife I don't think, based on what we're seeing from the economic data and from the Fed. So that's that. Anything on the, anything else on the commodity side you want to add here, Adam? Kind of mixed, I mean, the dollar <crosstalk>,

Adam Turnquist (09:23):

Yeah, I would say mixed. Precious metals, obviously. We're going to talk a little bit about gold there. So that's been an interesting space over the last month. You can see up 2.3% for the precious metals index. Big driver of that of course, has been what's happening in gold, but I think you can't overlook what's happening in the industrial sector as well, especially when you apply it to the, the broader market in the global market, the implications there. You have copper finally catching a bid off some key support levels over the last week, starting to challenge its 200-day moving average. So we're watching that technically for copper. And then iron ore had a big breakout over the last week or two. That's another one we're watching. Of course, China as a big importer of iron ore. So we'll see if we get continuation of that breakout over the next, call it couple months here, but a pretty big technical development there in some of those industrial metals.

Jeff Buchbinder (10:19):

Yeah, the news out of China has been a little bit on the negative side lately. So you know, it's tough for industrial metals to make much progress when you know, people are concerned about China's growth, right? We have you know, a probe into a shadow banking organization in China. We have a little bit soft industrial profits that reported overnight. So yeah, it's probably maybe mixed, mixed a slightly negative tone for Chinese growth, which may slow some of these metals down. So, let's turn to your key technical charts. Adam, I think, well, you waited a little bit on the on the S&P, I mean after boy 9% gain in November. It's one of the strongest Novembers you'll ever see, even if that's where it ends. Still not, you know, dramatically overbought here. I guess that's probably fair to say. And we've seen a little bit better breadth measures, haven't we lately.

Adam Turnquist (11:26):

Yeah, I think that's been one of the keys to calling this really the, you know, the change in the narrative from a correction to a comeback to really being a sustainable recovery here. And you can see how big of a move we've made in the S&P 500 coming off those lows. We've gapped above 4,400, that was a key resistance level that reversed a downtrend off the July 31 high, and now we're getting very close to retesting the, that same high at 4,600. So that's going to be a key level to watch this week if we do get a retest looking for a weekly close above that 4,600 level. That would really open the door for a potential retest of the prior all-time highs, going back to January, early January of 2022. So getting to a very important technical level for the S&P 500.

Adam Turnquist (12:19):

Initially, when we gapped above that 4,400 level, there was less than half of the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving average. That's that middle panel gauge that we like to look at in terms of market breadth, just how many stocks are above their key moving averages. And it was really the magnificent seven of course, driving that move higher, but over the last couple weeks, we've seen breadth broaden out. I think that suggests this is a healthy recovery as other sectors are participating, especially financials. That's one that hasn't participated in this bull market. So I think that's another constructive sign for broader equity space. And then on the bottom panel, we're getting confirmation and momentum as well. This is the directional movement index, or DMI index that I like to use, measures the strength and direction of price action. And you can see when the green line crosses above the red line, that's a bullish signal of a trend change. We got that right around the breakout and that reversal point. So we're getting broadening participation, confirming momentum, and clearing several key areas of overhead resistance. So I think you can, as we have been saying, you can call this one a comeback here for the S&P 500.

Jeff Buchbinder (13:31):

Oh yeah, it sure has, things look a lot different than they did a month ago. That's for sure. That's been quite a bounce off of that October low and, you know, provides more evidence that October is the month where bear markets go to die. I've been saying that for many, many years. So following the playbook there, no doubt. So, you know, technically we could keep going a little higher. We're obviously in a good seasonal period, Adam, and that's what this chart tells you. In fact you know, I think this is the best two month period on the calendar, November, December, right? And I guess the point you're making with this cool chart is that you know, if you have a good November, you're more likely to have a good December, is that right?

Adam Turnquist (14:16):

Yeah, 76% of the time actually for putting stats around it. And you can see all of those bubbles in the top right quadrant of this chart, basically suggesting you know, when you're positive in November. So you're right on the right side of that, 0% on the Y axis, you typically have a positive December. And again, that's 76% of the time going back to 1950, when you're positive in November, the average return for December is 1.7%. So it suggests that momentum typically continues into year end. So something we'll certainly be watching here, but I think a good sign, again, you have the price action moving in the right direction, seasonals lining up with that as well, suggesting maybe we could get some more upside here. But the size of those bubbles, also wanted to highlight that, that's based on the average or the, the annual return for each year. And you can see a lot of positive Novembers are associated with the larger bubbles, meaning larger annual returns as well, something that we're also seeing this year with the S&P 500.

Jeff Buchbinder (15:23):

Yeah, that's interesting. I'm sure if you look at just Novembers that are up maybe more than 5%, you probably get an even stronger result. You know, momentum begets momentum. So you know, we could drift a little bit higher from here but also want to point out that valuations are getting rich, right? And so you know, this move has taken P/Es from, on a forward four quarter basis, from low 14s to mid, I'm sorry, low 18s to mid-19s. You know, that's an area that, you know, as you approach 20, it gets, you know, it gets us a little uncomfortable. That doesn't mean we have to have a correction again, we just had one. It just means that it's probably going to be a more of a grind and you're probably going to need more help from earnings to get this stock market much higher than it is now.

Jeff Buchbinder (16:15):

Now, the caveat to that is you could get help from rates too. So if we have a soft landing and rates come down as inflation's come down, that actually can help valuations and support may be a P/E as high as as 20, we'll have to see. But just want to point that out that it's probably going to be more slow going if rates stay where they are and the earnings trajectory doesn't meaningfully change. So speaking of the bond market and yields you know, key part of stock valuation, certainly, I guess the key number you've been highlighting Adam, is 4.35. Is that still an important number to watch or has a move to 4.40 change something technically, which is where we were last I checked.

Adam Turnquist (17:09):

If you're going to put a number on it, I think you got to go with 4.35. And that goes back to the October 2022 highs. That's also a key retracement level of the move from, call it April lows to the October highs. So there's a confluence of support that we need to get through on the 10-year to really break that. That would suggest the 10-year, not necessarily in a confirmed downtrend, but more in a consolidation range, although we are getting some other shorter term signals here on the technical formations. You can see the 10-year making what we call a head and shoulders top formation. You have a left shoulder a head and then the right shoulder. And now today we're near that neckline break below 4.42 would actually violate that neckline and set you up for a likely retest to that 4.35 level that we're talking about.

Adam Turnquist (17:59):

So some interesting spots here for the 10-year, especially going into this week with where it's trading at this morning or this afternoon, momentum has been fading. That's another thing we've been watching. The RSI indicator relative strength index on that bottom panel, you can see it's been making lower highs over the last several weeks as yields are making higher highs. So we call that a bearish divergence. Often, but not always, you'll see these divergences form at major tops. So at least a potential signal there for momentum as well, that the 5% that we witnessed back in October. It could have been the high for the 10-year, but again, waiting for a break below 4.35 to really make that call.

Jeff Buchbinder (18:42):

Not far away, not far away. Though you probably want to hold below it for, you know, two or three days, right, to really confirm the breakdown. But this would be a major development because if you can get down closer to four you know, without severe economic damage, <laugh> to get us there, right? Just kind of a steady slow growth economy and get us down there declaring victory essentially on inflation you can get a P/E of 20, that will certainly encourage risk taking across the equity market and the bond market. It's been a while since we've been, you know, below four, I'm getting a little ahead of myself, but based on this chart set up, certainly a possibility that we that we move meaningfully lower if we do execute that breakdown.

Adam Turnquist (19:29):

Yeah, I think you nailed it too, in terms of the rationale as to why we're moving lower. Is it a victory on inflation or are we pricing in a recession? That's going to be another factor behind that, how the equity markets respond to that.

Jeff Buchbinder (19:45):

We won't hear the Fed declare victory, right? Just like the old market adage, they don't ring a bell at the top <laugh>, right? The Fed's not going to tell us exactly what they're going to do, but the market I think is moving closer to actually making that declaration. So although you've priced a lot of that in with, you know, stocks up 20% this year. So let's turn to the dollar. So this is a, I don't know, maybe an a little bit of an underrated risk barometer. People talk about it as a you know, as a barometer for embracing risk and financial conditions, right? So the Fed's worried about maybe financial conditions getting too loose, but the dollar's only, what 3% off of its highs? And it's certainly up from where it was a few months ago.

Jeff Buchbinder (20:38):

So you know, high level, I, you know, this is good news, I would say. And I think the Fed is probably going to continue to, they'll talk tough, but we think they're done. We think they're, we've seen the last hike and you know, we'll probably get the start of a cutting cycle in the middle of next year, maybe a little later, depending on how well the economy does. But you know, that would point to, well, actually you could go both ways on this, Adam, you could say, because the Fed is about to start cutting, the dollar should go down, right? But if the market is too aggressive in pricing in cuts, then you know, that may mean the dollar could get support as some of those cuts are unwound. So you know, maybe, this has always been tough to call. I've always had an easier time calling the stock market or the bond market than the dollar. But what do you see when you look at the charts, just straight technicals?

Adam Turnquist (21:36):

Yeah, a few things. It's, I think no coincidence, the dollar lows of this year were set at the same time equity markets peaked on July 31. So as you mentioned is kind of an underrated chart. And you can see we've had a significant rally off those July lows. Wouldn't quite call it parabolic, but that uptrend that's formed off those lows actually was violated over the last month. And we're starting to roll over here on the greenback, getting back below the 200-day moving average. We're seeing some bearish crossovers between those moving averages as well. So we could see downside in the dollar back to just above a hundred. That goes back to the February and I think the April lows on the U.S. dollar index here. So I think there's some shorter term downside risk for the dollar. Of course, equity markets historically welcome that message.

Adam Turnquist (22:28):

They're negatively correlated to the dollar. One area that's probably not welcoming a weaker dollar is just leveraged funds. These are typically your hedge funds positioned you know, speculative position in the market and you can see they've been decisively long, the dollar based on commodity futures data. And you can see how much that bottom panel, just the transition and the breakout is kind of failed breakout in the dollar. Those leverage funds loaded up and now there's certainly the risk that they start to unwind those positions and accelerate any downside in the dollar. But I think for now, maybe we'll be range bound in the dollar. Just going back to your point about maybe there's too much complacency with some of the, where the Fed cuts are coming in for next year. Those have been moved around and certainly moved the dollar as well as we kind of reprice and move those ahead on the calendar or back on the calendar. Could be major factors on the dollar. And of course, let's not forget about the ECB and the euro, that's about a 58% weighting within the dollar index. That's another wildcard for the dollar as well.

Jeff Buchbinder (23:36):

Yeah, that's right. The ECB is probably done. So the relative expectations for cuts for the ECB versus the Fed will probably be a big piece of the story here for the dollar index. So certainly have to keep watching that, you know, capital goes or the dollar or both go where they're treated best, right? And so if the U.S. economy outperforms the rest of the world and continues to get sort of a safe haven premium, then it's going to be tough for the dollar to move much lower. So that's something else to keep in mind, even though we do have a negative bias. So negative bias on the dollar means we probably got to like precious metals to some extent here, Adam, so I teed it up for you. Will gold keep shining? What's the technical setup look like here?

Adam Turnquist (24:27):

The technical setup right now, gold is improving, but I think all the gold bugs out there need to keep the champagne on ice because there's still more resistance to clear before you really can say we've broken out in gold. The level that we're watching is going to be right around 2,070. That goes back to the 2020 highs, the 2022 highs. We got very close to retesting that level earlier this year. So that's going to be the line in the sand to declare a major breakout for gold. So I think you really need to wait for that breakout. Of course, momentum is moving in the right direction. You can see we've included that DMI indicator on the bottom panel, recently got a buy signal in that. So we're getting confirmation of momentum in terms of a bullish bias there. And then I thought it was interesting just to look at overall positioning in the market.

Adam Turnquist (25:15):

This is managed gold futures. Again, these are those speculator hedge fund type positioning and they've been long gold pretty much all year. However, when you look at this data, you usually want to use it more as a contrarian signal when it hits extremes, and we're nowhere near extreme levels in positioning. So I think there's more scope for upside in terms of chasing this gold trade, and I think it's going to be a big test if we get back to that 2,070 level, what some of those positions do if they're adding or selling. You can see previous attempts that it was more of a sell signal as we got to more of an extreme in the positioning, but certainly the technical setup is improving, but again, really need to wait for that breakout point.

Jeff Buchbinder (26:00):

Yeah, so the dollar's a key here. Also gold's interest rate sensitive, right? Because you know, you have an opportunity cost of gold since it doesn't pay a dividend or generate interest. And rates of course have been coming down a little bit. So, that's somewhat helpful. So that's another variable to watch. And the last thing is geopolitical risk, right? This is why gold's tough to call because it has several different drivers and you never know which one's going to, you know, move the needle at any given time. So you know, you throw that together, you know, maybe we're sort of neutral with a positive bias here. But I'll tell you, gold's getting a lot of attention. I'm hearing a lot of market strategists and pundits talking about this and highlighting the breakout here. Not just today, but late last week too. I was taking vacation, but I was still following the news. So how about central banks? How big of a deal is this, Adam? I know, you know, everybody was worried about the collapse of the dollar a while back, remember that story which is kind of ridiculous, but clearly central bank diversification away from the dollar has been happening, but it hasn't really affected the dollar index all that much. How big of a factor is that for the gold market?

Adam Turnquist (27:17):

I think it's certainly supporting the gold market. I don't know if I'd call it a floor in the gold market, but you can see based on data from the World Gold Council, how much central bank buying as a part, as a percentage of aggregate demand has changed over the last several years. And what this shows on the dark blue is just the overall aggregate demand quarter by quarter. And you can see the bright blue is how much central bank buying there's been, and you can see how that's increased. So that bright blue bar is starting to grow a little bit. So, for example last quarter central banks bought 33% of the total aggregate gold demand or represented 33% of the overall demand for the quarter. But overall demand, you can see it's picking up, it's not just a central bank story.

Adam Turnquist (28:10):

We had record levels for the first nine months of this year, according to the World Gold Council. So there's some tailwinds there as well. It's not simply just hedge funds buying gold or speculators buying gold. The central banks are going after it as well. And of course they're diversifying away from the dollar. That's part of the story. But by no means <laugh> is there, is it going to be every central bank just owning gold and not the dollar as well. So some other themes that we're seeing behind the scenes of just the dollar being lower and gold being higher.

Jeff Buchbinder (28:44):

Yeah, the, the dollar still dominates global transactions. It's not really losing any market share globally to other currencies. So, last chart, Adam is seasonality. I was a little surprised to see this, to be honest, because you know, you don't think of stocks and gold being correlated, but yet the seasonals seem to be fairly correlated here with a strong December.

Adam Turnquist (29:12):

Yes, it's going to be the best two month period for gold with December and January, you can see average returns in December up 1.4%, January up 1.9%. So some pretty good seasonal tailwinds for gold suggesting maybe we'll get back to retest that 2,070 level for gold or potentially even breakout above that level.

Jeff Buchbinder (29:36):

Very good. So let's move on to preview the week. Like I said, this is a really busy week, but I think that there's one data point that really stands out, Adam, which is the core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. We know we had the better than expected CPI, which drove rates lower and stocks higher. It's probably hard to expect a repeat of that when you get this second inflation reading, but you know, I think it's fair to say that you know, there's a little bit of risk of a lower number that would be an upside risk, little bit of a risk of a lower number based on what I've seen. You know, what I'm hearing from Jeff Roach and what I'm seeing from other economists out there. Remember we had the big move down in energy prices in October and that does have some spillover effects and then we continue to see evidence of lower rents, right? Which is, you know, I think better than expected rent inflation numbers were part of the surprise of the CPI last month, so Adam, any comments on the PCE or any other data points that are highlighted here that you want to comment on?

Adam Turnquist (30:51):

I think it's going to be all about PCE as you suggested, and it does cap off the month of November as well. So I think two things when I think of PCE this week, one, a cooler number obviously going to be a positive I think for stocks on the surface. But you have to think, well, I think it would also kind of put the nail in the coffin on any type of forecasting for another rate hike. But two, I think you have to think about where the market is in terms of expectations for rate cuts and that's probably what I'll be watching close, the most close. And in terms of a reaction, just to see how much they move. We've moved a lot in terms of pricing and a potential rate cut as early as March. Now, is that too optimistic? We'll see if, you know, I think a lower number in those rate cut expectations don't move. I don't know how the market will react to that. Maybe some of the good news is priced in already, that's definitely a potential just given where rate cut expectations have moved and just how quickly they've moved over the last couple weeks.

Jeff Buchbinder (31:55):

Yeah, it's hard to find somebody that expects another hike and it's also hard to find somebody who does not think we'll see cuts by next summer. So those are clearly embedded in market expectations. The I mean these other numbers matter. The housing market continues to hold up pretty well considering you've got 8% mortgage rates, although actually they've dipped under eight with the move down in rates. So you know, so that's pretty good news. I guess we've had a little bit of a stubbornness to the inflation expectations and some of these consumer surveys, particularly the University of Michigan. So we'll see what we get on consumer confidence in the conference board data this week. And then the ISM manufacturing data doesn't matter as much as ISM services just based on the structure of the U.S. economy being much more services oriented.

Jeff Buchbinder (32:49):

But it will be good to see a little bit of a bump up in in the ISM on Friday. Now, even though it's the first Friday of December, they pushed the jobs report back to the eighth. So we'll talk about that on our podcast next week. And then last thing here, actually two last things. We got. We have the OPEC meeting, OPEC+ on Thursday, you mentioned that, Adam, so that could help turn around the oil markets. We'll be watching that closely. And then we also get a few more earnings. By the way, earnings growth is now 10%, excluding the energy sector. S&P 500 earnings ex energy up 10% over 10% in Q3 based on FactSet data. That's really impressive. So we get a few more earnings reports. We get several in tech, Salesforce and Dell, I believe. I think there's another one, but yeah, we're pretty much done. So, the overall numbers aren't going to move, but generally speaking the trend of pretty good results has continued over the last couple of weeks as we've mostly done retail and tech. So that's all I got. So with that, I'll go and wrap up. Adam, you probably got to head over to your Vikings tailgates, so good luck to your football team. Hopefully we can make it two for two because my football team won yesterday.

Adam Turnquist (34:17):

That'd be too bad with the Bears, but Vikings on Monday nights not something I'd bet on.

Jeff Buchbinder (34:22):

<Laugh>, yes, that Kirk Cousins has that reputation for not winning the big games on prime time, although I know he's hurt. But we'll see if that that trend continues. There certainly a lot of good football over the last few days to watch in addition to our celebration of food. So I'll close it just by saying that everybody, we hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday with friends and family. We wish you all good health and happiness as we enter the holiday season, although some people I think have been celebrating the holiday season since October, but this is really the heart of it, <laugh>. So enjoy everybody. Have a good week. Thank you, Adam for walking through those charts with us. Appreciate all of you listening to LPL Market Signals. We will see you next week.